SaaS Valuation Index Q2 2025 reveals four trends shaping SaaS M&A

Det globale SaaS-M&A-markedet gjennomgår en betydelig omstilling i 2025. Markedet beveger seg bort fra en periode preget av høy veksttempo og «growth-at-all-costs», og over i et mer avmålt og selektivt klima. Etter en turbulent periode vokser det nå frem et nytt landskap, kjennetegnet av større verdsettelsesdisiplin, sterkere kvalitetsfokus og tydelige regionale forskjeller. I første halvår 2025 ble det registrert 3 145 SaaS-transaksjoner globalt – en nedgang på 6,89 % sammenlignet med samme periode i 2024, ifølge den nye Translink Corporate Finance SaaS Valuation Index Q2 2025.

Denne avkjølingen i aktivitet signaliserer et marked som er i ferd med å modnes og som nå prioriterer fundamentale forhold fremfor hype. Her analyserer Translink Corporate Finance de fire viktigste temaene som preget SaaS-M&A-aktiviteten i H1 2025, og hva dette betyr for selskaper som skal navigere et mer selektivt marked.

Valuation correction creates a discerning market

After years of elevated multiples, SaaS valuations have tumbled, confirming that global economic concerns and a renewed focus on profitability have not spared the sector. The median valuation multiple for SaaS companies declined to 3.0x Next Twelve Months (NTM) revenue in Q2 2025, representing a significant 10% decrease from the previous quarter and a stark contrast to the 3.6x multiple observed just one year ago.

This correction is creating a clear and widening valuation gap between companies with strong, proven financial metrics and the rest of the pack. The market has shifted decisively from rewarding speculative growth to demanding sustainable profitability and operational efficiency. Acquirers are no longer willing to pay steep premiums for potential alone; they are now conducting deeper due diligence and seeking tangible value.

«Vi ser et fundamentalt skifte i SaaS-M&A-markedet,» sier Marc Irisson, Managing Partner i Translink CF France. «Tiden der kapital jaget vekst til enhver pris er over. Dagens kjøpere er disiplinerte, strategiske og laserfokuserte på kvalitetsaktiva med klare veier til lønnsomhet. Dette skaper et mer krevende miljø for selgere, men også en mulighet for veldrevne selskaper med sterke nøkkeltall til å skille seg ut og oppnå premium-multipler.»

The Rule of 40 becomes paramount

Nowhere is this flight to quality more evident than in the market’s emphasis on the “Rule of 40” (R40) – a key metric that balances growth with profitability by summing a company’s revenue growth rate and its EBITDA margin. In the current climate, the R40 has become a critical dividing line, separating the market’s outperformers from the underperformers and directly influencing valuation multiples.

Translink CF’s analysis reveals a dramatic valuation disparity based on this metric:

• Markedsvinnere: Market Outperformers: Companies with a strong R40 score are trading at a robust median EV/Sales multiple of 3x

• Markedsaktører: Market Performers: Those with solid but less spectacular metrics trade at a median of 2x

• Market Underperformers: Companies failing to meet the R40 benchmark are seeing their valuations compressed to a median of just 1x

This data underscores the market’s selective nature. Capital is still readily available, but it is being deployed with surgical precision towards businesses that demonstrate both strong growth and disciplined financial management.

“The Rule of 40 has shifted from a helpful guideline to a crucial benchmark in dealmaking,” says Ruben Moring, Partner at Translink CF Finland. “For SaaS owners preparing for a sale, this means the narrative has to be backed by numbers. Demonstrating a strong R40 performance is essential for justifying a premium valuation. Investors are building on reliability and a clear vision for the future, and a healthy R40 score is the clearest signal of a company’s operational excellence and strategic strength.”

A transatlantic tale

While the overall market is correcting, a closer look reveals diverging trends across key geographies. The dynamic between the historically dominant USA market and a newly resilient European market tells a compelling story of shifting momentum.

• United States Despite leading in deal volume, the USA market has experienced the steepest valuation decline. The median multiple has fallen by 11.4% to 3.1x NTM revenue, a seven-year low. This sharp drop reflects heightened uncertainty and a more cautious approach from American investors and acquirers.

• Europe: In contrast, the European SaaS market has demonstrated remarkable stability. Deal volumes have remained steady, and the median valuation is holding firm at 3.0x NTM revenue. This resilience means European SaaS companies are now trading with little to no discount compared to their USA counterparts, a significant shift from historical norms

• Rest of World (RoW): Valuations in other regions have returned to a more “normal” level, with the median multiple settling at 2.9x NTM revenue, indicating a broad-based global move towards more realistic valuation expectations.

Deal volume contracts but remains historically high

While the 6.89% year-on-year contraction in H1 2025 deal volume points to a slowdown, it is crucial to view this figure in its historical context. The approximately 1 500 deals completed per quarter remain well above the six-year average of around 1 200 deals.

Dette viser at SaaS-M&A-markedet ikke faller sammen, men konsolideres og modnes. Strategiske kjøpere og PE-fond ser fortsatt betydelig verdi i sektoren, særlig i selskaper som tilbyr kritisk teknologi, nisjekompetanse eller muligheter for plattformstrategier. Aktiviteten indikerer et sunt, men mer selektivt marked, der kjøpere bruker mer tid på å finne riktig match til riktig pris.

Etter hvert som SaaS-M&A-landskapet fortsetter å utvikle seg i 2025, vil suksess avhenge av dyp forståelse av skiftende verdsettelsesmetrikker, regionale forskjeller og viktigheten av økonomisk disiplin. Med over fem tiår med erfaring og global tilstedeværelse kan Translink CF hjelpe kunder med å navigere disse kompleksitetene og sikre at deres strategiske ambisjoner ivaretas – og at transaksjoner blir gjennomført på best mulig måte.